October 24, 2005
Intelligence of Crowds
One of the main points of James Surowiecki's "Wisdom Of Crowds" was that large numbers of regular people could make better decisions than small numbers of experts. Left somewhat unexamined was the question of what happens to decisions when the large crowd itself gets smarter. Here are some data points to integrate:
- The Flynn Effect: "The results of intelligence tests in different countries show that over the past century average IQ has been increasing at a rate of about 3 points per decade."
- Arnold Kling's observation that the rate of economic growth/technology-innocation is doubling every decade.
- (via Speculist) SciAm reports:
Enhancing intelligence is not science fiction. Many "smart" drugs are in clinical trials and could be on the market in less than five years. Some medications currently available to patients with memory disorders may also increase intelligence in the healthy population. Likewise, few people would lament the use of such aids to ameliorate the forgetfulness that aging brings. Drugs that counter these deficits would be adopted gratefully by millions of people.
My gengeral intuition about these factors is that we should anticipate large increases in economic growth in the next deecades. I wish I had a better sense of how to invest that way. Alternatively, perhaps the correct answer is not to bother. Just assume the economy will provide and spend spend spend!
Update: I just remembered Byran Caplan's Idea Trap. The idea is that as you grow you learn better how to grow and that has positive feedback consequences. (He reflects more on the bad feedback problems, but that is less relevant here).
Posted by Alex at 11:51 AM | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
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