December 07, 2005
Iran: False Negatives vs False Positives
Spurred by Muhammad El Baradei's recent confirmation that Iran is months away from an atomic bombJohn Noonan at Officer's Club discusses why war with Iran is likely imminent how it might play out. Scary stuff. I suspect that an attack will be simultaneously against both Iran and Syria because I think the US and Israel worry that Saddam had WMD and that they are now located in either Syria itself or the Bekka valley under Hezbollah (Iranian) control. The commenters discuss the question of whether or not an Iranian nuke is tolerable. The answer is that, even if you assume that they are rational, you still have the problem that once they have it, they are in a use-it-or-lose-it position with them. So they are likely to be used before it is rational per se.
Makes me think it is worth visiting Israel now, before the US/Israel attacks and Iran retaliates. Because, even if no WMD is used, Iran's conventional missiles can already hit Israel and do substantial damage.
Group trip to Israel?
Posted by Alex at 02:10 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
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Mmm...I think that assuming Iran will use a nuclear weapon once they have it is a false conjecture. They have nothing to gain. The government even does business with Israel, selling it oil on occasion, albeit through intermediaries. By the calculations of real politik, Israel is Iran's natural ally in a region dominated by militaristic Sunni Arabs. The Iranian president's recent ravings have nothing to do with Iranian policy and everything to do with him being an idiot puppet who occasionally foams at the mouth.
The reason Iran wants the bomb has nothing to do with getting rid of le petit satan and everything to do with national pride and honor. Persia use to be a great nation that stretched from the Caucasus to India. It still is pretty huge, and the national psychology is one of Empire--why should France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and the US have the bomb, but not Persia?
It's a humiliation.
On the other hand, the idea of WMDs being under hezbollah control in the Bekaa is interesting...it would be hard to hide them there, the region is just one completely flat plateau. They'd need to stick them in some caves in the Lebanon/Anti-Lebanon hills...interesting idea...
Posted by: Esmerelda at December 12, 2005 10:38 AM
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